Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,366$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(666 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,228.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,228.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(26.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(105.6\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $117$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $60,837$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(3.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,468.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 90.5)}}\) (asimptote \(77,468.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,161$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(774 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,008.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 49.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,008.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $55,676$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,772$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(2.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,352.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 32.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,352.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $248$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(80.6 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{236.1}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 29.7)}}\) (asimptote \(236.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $386$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,155$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,076.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 49.0)}}\) (asimptote \(7,076.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $327$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(80.1 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{322.2}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(322.2\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $428$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,761$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(3.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,198.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12,198.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $603$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(175 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{583.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(583.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $565$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,824$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(733 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,805.6}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,805.6\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(4.75 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.1}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 22.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $60,810$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,531.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(58,531.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,713$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(2.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,442.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,442.6\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,326$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $307,682$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(4.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{298,775.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 54.0)}}\) (asimptote \(298,775.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $43,011$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(7.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,944.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(40,944.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $263,341$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $238,833$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(6.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232,321.3}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(232,321.3\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,675$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(8.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,546.6}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.4)}}\) (asimptote \(33,546.6\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,573$ on 2020-06-23
